Denver (30-9-1) vs. Minnesota State (38-5)

Saturday, 6 p.m., ESPN2

The Pioneers are going for what would be a record-tying ninth NCAA hockey championship, while the Mavericks are seeking their first.

Denver likes to stick to its process. A month’s worth of stories could be written about the various details of that, but to summarize: The Pioneers want to possess the puck and be hard to play against (which I take to mean not giving opponents time and space to operate when they have the puck).

What’s interesting is DU has found several different ways to win. Although seemingly built for offensively inclined games and letting their skill and depth take over, the Pioneers have switched gears in this NCAA Tournament.

Consider their three wins – 3-2 over UMass Lowell on a third-period goal; 2-1 over Minnesota Duluth on a third-period goal; 3-2 over Michigan on an overtime goal. This is a team that has developed, despite regularly playing a dozen underclassmen, a comfort level with close games that wasn’t always there this season.

Tonight’s matchup against Minnesota State pits the top two scoring teams in Division I. Well, don’t fall for the shootout narrative, especially the way Mavericks goalie Dryden McKay, who won the Hobey Baker Award Friday, and Pioneers goalie Magnus Chrona are playing right now. I expect more of the same as we’ve seen over the past two weeks.

With that in mind, here are some things Denver will need to do, based upon a study of Minnesota State’s five losses, in order to emerge with title No. 9.

Get a lot of shots on goal

The Mavericks gave up an average of 19 shots on goal in their five losses, and that included 30 in a 2-1 loss to Ferris State and just 10 in a 1-0 loss to Lake Superior State. The latter game was even odder when one considers the Lakers scored theirs on a short-handed chance in the first period.

Minnesota State led the nation in shots on goal against with … 18.9. So win or lose that’s what it allows. However, Denver is No. 2 in shots on goal with 37.3. Something has to give. Even though Denver hasn’t piled up goals in the playoffs, it has generated a lot of chances, and it has enough players who only need one chance.

Minnesota State takes almost 33 shots on goal per game (seventh overall). Given how DU held Michigan to 21 SOG, I think the Pioneers could limit the Mavericks below their average if their team defense has all hands on deck again.

Score a power-play goal

In Minnesota State’s first three losses – all of which were by one goal (to St. Cloud State, Michigan and Ferris State) – it allowed a power-play goal. DU’s power play is 12th in the nation (24 percent), yet it has not scored in the NCAAs. This is a bit concerning, but let’s not forget how many chances the power play had in its final two tries against the Wolverines. This is probably just a matter of time.

Pressuring the net front and firing shots when lanes are open – creating Mayhem! – is the way to go.

Conversely, DU played a nearly flawless game against Michigan in the special-teams department. There was potential call that could have been made against it in the third period vs. the Wolverines, but that was it. It gets an A in the discipline class after mixed grades until this point. That needs to continue because Minnesota State has the No. 3 power play (26.8 percent).

Win another one-goal game

Understand that Minnesota State five losses all were by one goal. Its most recent, a 4-2 defeat to Northern Michigan, included an empty-net goal. It’s going to be a tight game. Also keep in mind that loss came in January. The Mavericks have won 18 games in a row.

As previously mentioned, Denver has found its one-goal-game mojo.

Go back for seconds

Denver has been great in the second period in this season. Keep that up because in the Mavericks gave up multiple second-period goals in three of their five losses. Of course, MSU also took over Thursday’s 5-1 victory against Minnesota in the second period.

Could it be a blowout in either direction?

Anything is possible, but the Mavericks (who allow just 1.3 goals per game) would have to play so out of character or Denver, as good as its been, would have to find another gear for this to be a rout.

The call

This seems like a one-goal game waiting to happen. 3-2 has been the magic number for Denver in this postseason, just as it was in the 2017 title game, so that is the call here … in overtime.

Notes: McKay and Denver’s Bobby Brink were selected first-team West All-Americans on Friday. MSU’s Nathan Smith was a second-team pick. Brink is the nation’s leading scorer with 57 points, while Smith has 50. McKay has all 38 wins for MSU and a 1.27 goals-against average.

©First Line Editorial 2022