Scouting the NCHC for the 2019-20 season

Top-ranked Denver opens NCHC play on Friday night at two-time defending national champion Minnesota Duluth. What follows is Magness Mayhem’s scouting report on the league’s eight teams as well as its projected order of finish.

Colorado College

2018-19 records: 17-20-4 (9-12-3 NCHC, sixth)

2018-19 goal differential: +3

Key losses: F Trey Bradley (34 points), F Westin Michaud (30 points, grad transferred to North Dakota), C Mason Bergh (28 points), F Trevor Gooch (23 points), G Alex Leclerc (17-19-4, 2.70, .914), plus three defensemen.

Key returners: So. D Bryan Yoon (26 points), So. F Ben Copeland (21 points), Sr. F Chris Wilkie (19 points), So. F Grant Cuikshank (18 points, 11 goals), Sr. F Nick Halloran (45 points in ’17-18)

The rundown: The Tigers will try to replace Leclerc with grad transfer Ryan Ruck (Northeastern) and freshman Matt Vernon (the NAHL’s top goaltender). Losing four of its top five scorers hurts CC, but getting Halloran back from injury provides help. Yoon is one of the more productive D-men in the league, and junior forward Bailey Conger (six points) and Wilkie (nine points) are off to promising starts.

Denver

2018-19 records: 24-13-5 (11-10-3-2, fourth)

2018-19 goal differential: +32

Key losses: F Jarid Lukosevicius (29 points, team-high 19 goals), F Colin Staub (16 points), G Filip Larsson (13-6-5, 1.95, .932, 4 ShO, signed with Detroit)

Key returners: Sr. F Liam Finlay (36 points, 16 goals), So. F Emilio Pettersen (30 points), Jr. D Ian Mitchell (27 points), So. C Cole Guttman (26 points, 14 goals), Sr. D Michael Davies (16 points), Jr. G Devin Cooley (11-6-2, 1.95, .934, 4 ShO).

The rundown: An already stacked forward group added USHL Player of the Year Bobby Brink and Boston U transfer Hank Crone to its top six. Freshman D Justin Lee looks like a keeper, too. The loss of Larsson to the pros and Cooley to injury has been softened by the play of freshman Magnus Chrona, who has won all seven of his starts so far with 1.86 and .925 numbers. The Pioneers’ early top ranking doesn’t seem like a stretch at all.

Miami

2018-19 records: 11-23-4 (5-17-2-1, T-seventh)

2018-19 goal differential: -35

Key losses: F Josh Melnick (26 points), D Grant Hutton (21 points), D Jonathan Gruden (15 points, signed with Ottawa).

Key returners: Sr. F Gordie Green (25 points, 11 goals), So. D Derek Daschke (22 points), So. F Brian Hawkinson (16 points), Sr. Karch Bachman (10 goals), Sr. G Ryan Larkin 10-16-2, 3.05, .907)

The rundown: First-year coach Chris Bergeron faces a tall task in rebuilding the RedHawks, but he has a veteran forward group and two good young defensemen in Daschke and freshman Jack Clement to work with.

Minnesota Duluth

2018-19 records: 29-11-2 (14-9-1, second)

2018-19 goal differential: +54

Key losses: F Parker Mackay (33 points, 16 goals), D Mikey Anderson (27 points, signed with L.A.), F Peter Krieger (24 points), F Riley Tufte (19 points, signed with Dallas)

Key returners: Jr. F Justin Richards (32 points, 12 goals), Jr. D Scott Perunovich (29 points), Jr. F Nick Swaney (25 points), So. F Noah Cates (23 points) Jr. D Dylan Samberg (19 points), Sr. G Hunter Shepard (29-11-2, 1.76, .923)

The rundown: The two-time champions sustained significant losses at forward and on the blue line, where Anderson’s early departure hurts. Shepard should give them a chance every night.

Omaha

2018-19 records: 9-24-3 (5-17-2-1, T-seventh)

2018-19 goal differential: -42

Key losses: F Mason Morelli (34 points, 19 goals), F Fredrik Olofsson (34 points, 10 goals), G Evan Weninger (9-23-3, 3.50, .900)

Key returners: So. F Taylor Ward (27 points), Sr. F Zach Jordan (26 points), Sr. D Dean Stewart (21 points)

The rundown: Often a top-heavy team, the Mavericks should be better balanced because of deep recruiting classes the past two years. Both goalies are freshmen, and one-time Colorado Thunderbird Isaiah Saville, a 2019 Vegas pick, has played in five of six games thus far.

North Dakota

2018-19 records: 18-17-2 (12-11-1, fifth)

2018-19 goal differential: +3

Key losses: F Nick Jones (20 points), C Rhett Gardner (14 points), D Hayden Shaw (10 points)

Key returners: Jr. F Jordan Kawaguchi (26 points, 10 goals), Jr. D Matt Kiersted (18 points), Sr. D Colton Poolman (17), So. D Jacob Bernard-Docker (16 points), Sr. F Cole Smith (16 points), So. G Adam Scheel (13-10-2, 2.07, .910)

The rundown: The Fighting Hawks were offensively challenged a year ago, but Scheel kept them close in a lot of games. His injury was devastating, but he’s off to a strong start this season. A solid freshman class, headlined by forwards Shane Pinto (Ottawa pick) and Harrison Blaisdell (Winnipeg), will help. Having Poolman healthy will as well.

St. Cloud State

2018-19 records: 30-6-3 (19-2-3-2, first)

2018-19 goal differential: +71

Key losses: F Patrick Newell (47 points, 21 goals), F Blake Lizotte (42 points, 14 goals, signed with L.A.), F Robby Jackson (40 points, 19 goals), D Jimmy Schuldt (35 points), C Ryan Poehling (31 points, signed with Montreal).

Key returners: Jr. G David Hrenak (23-5-2, 2.18, .906), Sr. D Jack Ahcan (34 points), Jr. F Easton Brodzinski (29 points, 16 goals), So. F Nolan Walker (27 points), So. F Sam Hentges (20 points), So. D Nick Perbix (20 points).

The rundown: No team in the country sustained the talent drain that the Huskies did, and it will be interesting to see if they can continue to score at a video-game-like clip. There is a lot of talent still on the roster, but one wonders if it will be enough to overcome a bevy of defensive-minded teams in the conference.

Western Michigan

2018-19 records: 21-15-1 (13-10-1-1, third)

2018-19 goal differential: +14

Key losses: F Colt Conrad (38 points), D Corey Schueneman (21 points), G Trevor Gorsuch (19-11-1, 2.75, .905)

Key returners: Jr. F Josh Passolt (34 points, 16 goals), Sr. F Hugh McGing (30 points, 16 goals), Jr. F Austin Rueschhoff (27 points, 13 goals), Jr. F Ethen Frank (26 points, 15 goals), Sr. D Cam Lee (26 points), Sr. F Wade Allison (15 points in 22 games).

The rundown: The Broncos appear to have found Gorsuch’s replacement in freshman Brandon Bussi, and Philadelphia draft pick Ronnie Attard fortifies a big, young defense. But the real strength of this team is a deep and veteran forward group. Allison’s health is something to watch because if he’s at or near 100 percent he could be one of the best power forwards in college hockey.

How it could unfold

So many teams in the NCHC have outstanding goaltending and play solid defense that goals can be tough to come by. Yet, several teams also feature deep and talented forward groups. In just about any game you can plan on watching future NHL players, and sometimes several of them. In formulating my predictions, goaltending was a key influencer, as was overall depth.

  1. Denver: The Pioneers have all of the ingredients for a long season – plenty of goaltending, tons of forward depth and a defense headed by a couple of elite players in Ian Mitchell and Michael Davies.
  2. Western Michigan: Huge and deep, the Broncos will be a handful for any team. If Bussi is an upgrade in goal they should be in the running for a final eight spot.
  3. Minnesota Duluth: The Bulldogs always have their ups and downs during the regular season, but they are sound defensively and in net, and they rarely beat themselves with mistakes. As they’ve proven over and over, if they get in the Tournament, they can win it.
  4.  North Dakota: Another team that is strong from the back end out. The question for the Fighting Hawks is do they have enough offense with their influx of newcomers at forward?
  5. Colorado College: The Tigers are faster and deeper, even with all the players they had to replace. Grad transfers and a solid freshman class have helped. The big question is how will the goaltending situation shake out?
  6. St. Cloud State: The Huskies probably won’t finish this low, but teams that lose most of their top six and one of the best D in the country are bound to take a step back.
  7. Omaha: If the Mavericks’ freshmen goaltenders are more than just good, this should be an improved squad.
  8. Miami: Yes, it’s rebuilding, but there is some talent to work with on the roster.

©First Line Editorial 2019

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