Scouting Providence vs. DU

No. 2 Denver (12-3-3) at Providence (7-6-3)

Friday at 5 p.m. MST and Saturday at 3 p.m. MST

Radio: 16oo AM

All-time series: Denver leads, 8-6-1, but Providence won the most recent meeting, in the 2015 NCAA Northeast Regional final. This is Denver’s first trip to Schneider Arena since late 1999.

Common opponents: Miami (Providence split, DU tied twice), Boston College (both teams lost), Boston University (DU swept, Providence lost and tied)

Butcher_Will

Will Butcher

The missing links: Denver will be without two of its top three scorers, sophomore forward Troy Terry (17 points) and freshman center Henrik Borgstrom (16 points). Terry, whose nine goals lead the Pioneers, is playing for Team USA in the World Junior Championships, while Borgstrom is a member of Team Finland in the same event. In addition, sophomore Dylan Gambrell (16 points) will serve a one-game suspension on Friday after his game misconduct in the second game against Minnesota-Duluth on Dec. 10. And, senior Emil Romig (lower body) is still out. At the start of the season, those were four of DU’s top six or seven forwards. … Providence also has two players at the World Juniors – leading scorer Erik Foley, a Winnipeg Jets prospect, has 15 points and seven goals and is a teammate of Terry’s on Team USA. Fellow forward Kasper Bjorkqvist has joined Borgstrom on Finland’s team.

Offense: There will be opportunities galore for players to see top-six minutes this weekend, and getting scoring from previously untapped sources will be key for DU. Senior defenseman Will Butcher shares DU’s scoring lead with Terry and will be counted on to pick up some slack this weekend. Sophomore Jarid Lukosevicius (six goals) will be the highest goal-scorer in the lineup. Seniors Matt Marcinew (eight points) and Evan Janssen (five goals) likely will get heavy minutes, and underclassmen such as Liam Finlay and Colin Staub likely will find themselves in top-six roles. …

Providence’s 3.06 goals per game are slightly more than DU’s 2.78. Behind Foley, a sophomore forward, freshman Josh Wilkins and junior Brian Pinho have 14 points and five goals apiece. Defensemen Anthony Florentino and Jake Walman have 12 points each.

Defense: This unit has been the Pioneers’ strength all season, and I would expect that especially to be the case this weekend. In addition to Butcher, freshman Michael Davies (eight points), junior Adam Plant (five) and sophomore Blake Hillman (four) can be expected to apply offensive pressure. Behind them, junior Tanner Jaillet has been a wall most nights (11-2-3, 1.99 GAA, .922 save percentage). Senior Evan Cowley (1-1, 1.42, .942) could get a start either this weekend or next vs. Arizona State. …

The Friars are also stingy on defense, allowing just 2.50 goals per game. Montreal Canadiens prospect Hayden Hawkey, a Parker, Colo., native, has played every game in net thus far for Providence. The guess here is he will be extra motivated against the Pioneers. Hawkey (2.41 GAA and .904 save percentage overall) stopped 65 of 67 shots in a sweep of RIT just before the break and was selected the Hockey East Defensive Player of the Week.

Special teams: I broke down the Pioneers’ special teams in detail in my midseason analysis, but suffice to say they’re OK. DU connects on 16.3 percent of its power plays (38th in the nation) and kills off 84.4 percent of its penalties (24th), though it’s been much better on the latter of late. Not having Terry and Borgstrom both nights unquestionably will hurt the PP. …

Providence is slightly better in both categories, hitting at 18.4 percent of the time on the PP (25th) and killing off 84.7 percent of its penalties. Foley (4 PPG), Wilkins (3) and sophomore Scott Conway (3) do much of the damage when the Friars have the man advantage.

Bottom line: Not having three of your top four scorers for one game and two for the other – on the road – will make a sweep a tall order for the Pioneers, but they can do it if their defense and goaltending show no signs of rust after the break and the remaining players step up.

2 Comments on "Scouting Providence vs. DU"

  1. Providence will also be missing two players for the weekend. Leading scorer Foley for Team USA and Bjorkqvist for Team Finland.

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