Closer look at NCHC semifinal: No. 6 DU vs. No. 4 St. Cloud State

Can the Pioneers avenge a December sweep by the Huskies in Friday’s NCHC Frozen Face-off semifinal at Minneapolis? Let’s take a closer look at St. Cloud and at the matchup.

Time/TV/Radio: 6:30 p.m. MDT/CBSSports Network/1600 AM

Season update: The Huskies enter the semifinal on a roll, just like the Pioneers. SCSU has gone 15-4-1 since it swept DU at Magness Arena in mid-December. Denver has gone 16-1-3 since there, the second best record in the nation (behind Northeastern) over that span. St. Cloud has a better overall record (29-8-1 to DU’s 23-8-5), but the teams finished in a virtual tie in the NCHC standings with 53 points and 17 wins apiece. That’s where the December series comes into play as a tiebreaker. The Pioneers have won 11 games in a row, their longest streak since the 2001-02 season, per DU Sports Information.

Last time they played: In a season of turning points for DU, this was the first one. After the Pioneers took a 2-0 lead on goals by Dylan Gambrell and Troy Terry in the Friday game, the Huskies rattled off five goals in a row to win 5-2. The game was tied until St. Cloud had a three-goal blitz in a 1:33 span late in the third period against Tanner Jaillet, who made 28 saves. The rematch was a different story as St. Cloud ripped DU, 6-2, and the Pioneers cycled through all three of their goaltenders. Two goals in the first 1:17 of the second period gave the Huskies a 3-1 lead and ended Evan Cowley‘s night. Jaillet gave up three in relief, and Greg Ogard finished up. The Pioneers had no answer for Kalle Kossila (five goals) or Joey Benik (three) all weekend. NCHC Player of the Year and Defenseman of the Year Ethan Prow had four assists, and Jimmy Murray had five. After that loss, DU’s fourth in a row by at least three goals, Coach Jim Montgomery was as frustrated as I’ve seen him all season, and he basically said it was back to the drawing board for him, the staff and the team because he’d never experienced anything like that drought. Montgomery also said the goalie timeshare was finished. Jaillet would get the lion’s share of the work going forward. That was one of many moves the launched the Pioneers’ second-half, season-saving run.

Offense: The Huskies have the No. 2 offense in the nation, scoring 4.32 goals per game, while the Pioneers have risen to No. 14 (3.22). SCSU typically outshoots foes by at least five shots per game, and it has outstanding scoring depth. Sixteen players are in double figures in points – 12 with more than 20, led by Kossila’s 48, Benik’s 44, Patrick Russell‘s 38, Murray’s 37, David Morley‘s 36 and Prow’s 35. Ten Huskies have 10 more goals, headed by Benik’s 21 and Russell’s 19. Judd Peterson has 16. Veterans dot the Huskies’ scoring leaders – Kossila, Benik, Murray, Morley and Prow all are seniors. … The Pioneers also have excellent balance, with 11 scorers in double figures, but the big story of the second half has been the Pacific Rim Line of junior Trevor Moore, sophomore Danton Heinen and freshman Dylan Gambrell, which has combined for 90 points (32 goals, 58 assists) in the new year and has 123 overall. Centers Quentin Shore (12) and Matt Marcinew (10) are in double figures in goals, and defensemen Will Butcher (29 points) and Nolan Zajac (18) are ever-present scoring threats from the blue line. A handful of others have played particularly well of late, especially freshmen Troy Terry and Colin Staub, each of whom had a goal in each game against Nebraska-Omaha last weekend, and junior Emil Romig, who along with senior Gabe Levin, have teamed with Staub to form an under-the-radar dangerous line.  Evan Janssen, who teams with Shore and Terry, consistently is in the right place and he made a beautiful stretch pass to set up a goal vs. UNO. Marcinew’s line mates, captain Grant Arnold and Jarid Lukosevicius, have combined for 11 goals. There isn’t an easy shift against DU right now. Add to that that all of the Pioneers’ other defensemen can skate well enough to jump into the play, and several – particularly Matt VanVoorhis – have the shot to bury chances if St. Cloud leaves the points open or collapses too much into its zone.

Defense: The teams are very close here (2.16 goals allowed for SCSU and 2.28 for DU), which is a testament to just how much the Pioneers’ defense and goaltending have improved in the second half. St. Cloud’s Charlie Lindgren has been one of the top goaltenders in NCAA hockey all season, and his selection as the NCHC’s Goaltender of the Year lends further credence to that. He is 28-8-1 with a 2.08 goals against average and a .926 save percentage. Jaillet has a 15-3-5 mark with a 2.19 gas and a .928 save percentage, but consider this: since being named the full-time starter he is 12-0-3 with a 1.86 gas and a .938 save percentage (which was best in the conference). Cowley also has been excellent in the second half (just ask Minnesota-Duluth, which he limited to 1 goal in roughly 115 minutes).

Special teams: The Pioneers cannot, repeat cannot, put the Huskies on the power play, where they connect nearly 30 percent of the time (29.46). They are No. 2 in the nation, behind Michigan, with the man-advantage. DU is middle of the pack nationally, hitting at nearly 18 percent (17.89). If there is one season-long mystery remaining to be solved for the Pioneers, this would be it. They have so much offensive skill that one would think they should be more proficient up a man. … Despite excellent goaltending, both teams are middle of the road on the penalty kill, with DU enjoying a slight edge (82.9 percent/24th nationally) over St. Cloud (81.8/33rd).

Outlook: The first game these teams played in December was close until the Pioneers’ defensive meltdown in the final five minutes. They never recovered the next night, and it appeared the Huskies were a far better team. The reality is the teams actually are much closer than their early-season results indicated. Given the proximity to St. Cloud for the Frozen Faceoff, this will be a home game for the Huskies, and that’s OK for DU, which has gone 6-1 on the road during the second half. This should be a great game as both teams pack plenty of scoring punch and both teams have gotten outstanding goaltending for months. If DU’s defense doesn’t allow SCSU to make plays with the puck down low (as it did in December) and the team can stay out of the box, the Pioneers have an excellent chance to keep their roll going. If not, the Huskies will win. … I think DU has it figured out and wins a cliff-hanger, 4-3.

@MagnessMayhem

 

1 Comment on "Closer look at NCHC semifinal: No. 6 DU vs. No. 4 St. Cloud State"

  1. Win or lose, we still make the NCAAs. But from a confidence point of view, a win will define the “new” Pios, a team ready for the Frozen Four.
    Hope you are right about a finals hangover, cuz we can’t give the cloudies that first/extra step.

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