Inside the numbers: Power play struggles taking a toll

You’re not imaging things. No. 7 Denver definitely has experienced power outages at times this season, and especially since the calendar has flipped to 2019.

Often among Division I’s top teams on the power play, the Pioneers aren’t even average at it this season – they’re 34th out of 60 Division I teams. Their 17.6 percent efficiency is their lowest since the 2008-09 season, when they finished a nearly identical 17.7 percent. The difference is 10 seasons ago that rate was good for 18th.

The funk has been particularly acute during the past three games, when DU has gone just 1 for 16 (6 percent) with the man advantage and has emerged from three NCHC games with two of nine possible points. Since the Christmas break, Denver is just 5 for 41 (12 percent) in a nine-game span.

The timing isn’t great for this.

“Special teams are really important, especially at this time of year,” coach David Carle told me this week. “Typically there are less penalties called, so you might get two chances in a game and how you do in those could be the difference between moving on or not.”

DENVER – NORTH DAKOTA PREVIEW

The current slump is nothing new this season, however. Denver has had three other three-game stretches when it went 1 for 11 (9 percent) on the power play over a three-game stretch and a series against Alaska in which it went 1 for 12.

The power play’s malaise has been one contributor to the Pioneers quickly dropping from third to fifth in the conference, one point behind this weekend’s guest, North Dakota. The top four teams play host to quarterfinal playoff series, and do you want to see DU have to win a best-of-three series at Grand Forks (where it went 1-1 in December) or Kalamazoo (where is 0-4 in the past two years)?

“It hasn’t been good enough here recently, and we recognize that,” Carle said. “We’re continuing to work on it, watching video, showing video, talking to players about what they’re seeing and carving out more time to work on it in practice.”

Denver’s power-play efficiency by season

  • 18-19 – 17.6 percent, 34th in Division I
  • 17-18 – 22.1, 13th
  • 16-17 – 21.3, 9th
  • 15-16 – 18.4, 26th
  • 14-15 – 22.1, 6th
  • 13-14 – 19.8, 20th
  • 12-13 – 21.3, 9th
  • 11-12 – 21.5, 12th
  • 10-11 – 18.6, 22nd
  • 09-10 – 20.1, 13th
  • 08-09 – 17.7, T18th

New looks

Against Colorado College, when Denver went 0 for 2, including a five-minute PP, Carle and his staff rolled out two new-look groups. One featured a “freshman five” with forwards Cole Guttman, Emilio Pettersen, Brett Stapley and Tyler Ward with defenseman Slava Demin. The other was a group that included seniors Jarid Lukosevicius and Colin Staub with junior Liam Finlay and sophomore Ian Mitchell with either classmate Ryan Barrow or Kohen Olischefski.

Previously, the top line of Guttman, Lukosevicius (4 PPG) and Pettersen (5 PPG) teamed with Mitchell (2 PPG) and Stapley on the top unit. Last weekend, Finlay (3 PPG) replaced Guttman and senior Les Lancaster slotted in for Demin on the second group.

This weekend, who knows? Let’s just say there are a lot of moving parts.

“We’re moving things around to try different looks to see what works,” Carle said. “When things aren’t working you want to be pro-active in that.

“We’re looking at different things to see if something sparks with chemistry. Recently, things have not been at the level they need to be, and there are other players who are getting looks. It’s healthy to have that competition.”

Special teams don’t lie very often

I broke down the special teams battle in every game this season for the Pioneers and discovered the results are exactly average. Six times they’ve won it (and have gone 5-0-1 in those games), six times they’ve lost it (1-3-2) and 11 times it’s been even (8-3). Since goals determine outcomes of games, the special teams net determined these wins, losses and ties.

As it is with most teams, winning this component of a hockey game is huge for DU, and even tying it has led to wins more often than not for the Pioneers.

Even though the focus has been on the power play thus far, the penalty kill also has room to improve – a lot of it.

Denver is killing just 78.7 of opponents’ power players, ranking them 41st in D-I. Typically the Pioneers reside in the teens or low 20s in that category. This, too, is a concern for Carle, though he’s seen some signs of hope recently despite allowing six goals in the past 12 chances.

“We’ve made some strides in areas we wanted to and didn’t get the results we wanted to,” he said. “We’re trying to get back to some of our fundamentals because some details have started to slip.”

I tend to agree with his assessment that things aren’t as terrible as they’ve looked lately because the larger body of work indicates as much. There have been eight games this season when DU has held opponents without a power-play goal and 11 other times foes have gotten one goal. The other four games are the outliers – a tie with Alaska (2 PPG), a loss at St. Cloud (2 PPG), the tie with CC (3 PPG) and Saturday’s loss at Western Michigan (2PPG).

Both earlier games against North Dakota were ties as neither team scored a power-play goal all weekend. If you’re worried about the Pioneers’ special teams, however, think how the Fighting Hawks must feel. Their power play has been statistically worse (16 percent, 43rd) and their PK only slightly better (80 percent, 36th).

Given these typically are very physical matchups, keep your eye on the special teams battle this weekend. It likely will tell an even larger part of the story than usual.

©First Line Editorial 2017-19

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