Denver (32-7-4) vs. Minnesota-Duluth (28-6-7)

Saturday, 6 p.m. MDT, ESPN

What’s the story?

The two NCHC teams that spent a majority of the college hockey season trading places between No. 1 and No. 2 face off for all the marbles at United Center. Denver dominated Notre Dame during most of their semifinal, winning 6-1 in a game that was 5-0 after two periods. Minnesota-Duluth beat fellow No. 1 seed Harvard, which like the Pioneers boasts a super-charged offense, 2-1 on a last-minute goal. The teams split an NCHC series in December in Denver, but the Pioneers were without all-American freshman Henrik Borgstrum (illness). Much of the buildup to the final has focused on how much of a difference the fantastic Finn will make.

Minnesota-Duluth will get its first look at DU freshman Henrik Borgstrom, who missed the teams’ series in December. Photo courtesy of Shannon Valerio, DU Athletics.

Offensive comparison

The teams have plenty of capabilities. There were seven goals scored in their first meeting in December and four the next night. Statistically, this is a wash. The Bulldogs score 3.37 per game, while the Pioneers net 3.47. However, DU has scored 5.67 per game in its first three NCAA games, while UMD has tallied 2.67. The Bulldogs have 10 players who have 15 or more points, led by senior wing Alex Iafallo (50 points, 20 goals), sophomore forward Adam Johnson (37, 18), freshman forward Joey Anderson (36,12) and sophomore defenseman Neal Pionk (33, 7), who along with DU’s Will Butcher was among the best defensemen in the NCHC. DU has 12 players with 15 or more points. Borgstrom and Troy Terry (43 points, 22 goals apiece) lead a DU offense that also features Dylan Gambrell (41, 13), Hobey Baker winner Butcher (37 points), Jared Lukosevicius (29, 13) and Evan Janssen (26).

Defensive comparison

For the second game in a row the Pioneers will face a Mike Richter Award finalist, this time it’s UMD freshman Hunter Miska (27-4-5, 2.17 GAA, .921 save percentage). Of course DU boasts the Richter winner in junior Tanner Jaillet (27-5-4, 1.83, .928), who in the semifinal did what he seems to always do – give his team a chance to win with his steady, no-nonsense play. The Pioneers’ defense (1.81 goals allowed per game, first in D-I) has done an excellent job keeping foes to the outside and not giving up many second shots. The defenders will need to be careful of the Bulldogs’ speed and skill; maintaining  proper gaps will be crucial. I wonder if UMD’s speed will give DU pause in how often its defensemen activate. That will be something to watch. Conversely, the Bulldogs (2.24, eighth) have be aware of DU’s high-end skilled forwards, particularly Borgstrom, Terry and Gambrell, who can break down a defense and create openings for themselves and line mates any time they have the puck.

Special teams

DU’s power play hits 21.5 percent of the time and UMD’s clicks at 20 percent. The Poneers’ penalty kill has been better statistically, 84.1 percent to the Bulldogs’ 80.9, and that rates as an advantage because DU takes, on average, a penalty and a half fewer per game. My impression of the Bulldogs over the past several seasons is they are not averse to playing closer to the edge and turning their size into a more tangible advantage.

And the winner is …

There are several intriguing storylines. Both teams are fast and well-coached, and both teams are loaded with veteran leaders. Duluth has more size but I think Denver has more finishers and Jaillet’s experience in net cannot be undersold. UMD has won three one-goal games during the tournament while DU has won by nearly four per game. Both teams’ coaches have drilled it into their players’ heads exactly what is at stake, and both coaches know exactly how to win in these types of situations. The call here is DU wins a tight one, 3-2, giving the Pioneers their eighth title, and coach Jim Montgomery his second just 92 miles south of where he won one as a player 24 years ago.